Florida vs Georgia
Florida meet Georgia in Week 9. The model favors Georgia by 16.5. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ rates Georgia 27.1 (rank 2) against Florida at 10.6 (rank 32), projecting Georgia by 16.5 and an 84% win probability. The market is more cautious: the consensus line sits at Georgia -11.7 with a 55.8 total, implying 76%, and the ProphetX exchange prices Georgia at -395 (80%) versus Florida +380 (21%). The model and the market agree on direction but split on degree, with the ratings gap arguing for a wider Georgia edge than the 11.7-point line reflects.
The unit splits reinforce that gap. Georgia carries the #2 offense and #4 defense; Florida ranks #24 on offense and #50 on defense, the clearest mismatch on the card. Series history tempers the spread somewhat: Florida trails 4-8 all time but kept it to one score in 2025, a 24-20 Georgia win.
Resumes add context. Florida is 5-2, with a 27-24 win at Texas and a 52-28 result over Ole Miss, but also a 17-45 loss at Missouri and a 19-38 home loss to South Carolina. Georgia is 6-1, its lone blemish a 24-27 home loss to Auburn, offset by a 20-17 win at Alabama. Season simulations give Georgia 9.7 projected wins and 80.1% Playoff odds to Florida's 7.5 and 7.2%.
The model backs Georgia harder than the market, projecting 16.5 against an 11.7 line that the unit-rank mismatch supports.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Florida's win price; Georgia's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Florida is favored, below it Georgia is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Florida vs Georgia game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Florida vs Georgia market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Florida and Georgia play?
Week 9 of 2026, on Oct 31, 2026 at a neutral site.
Who is favored?
The model projects Georgia by 16.5 (84% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Georgia lead 8-4 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →