Miami (OH) vs Cincinnati
Miami (OH) visit Cincinnati in Week 3. The model favors Cincinnati by 16.4. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these teams by more than 14 rating points, Cincinnati at 7.6 (rank 45) against Miami (OH) at -6.6 (rank 91), and projects Cincinnati by 16.6. That is two points clear of the consensus -14.5 across two books, and the model's 84% win probability for Cincinnati sits above the market-implied 81%. Both signals agree on direction; the model simply prices the home side a touch more firmly.
The unit ranks explain the gap. Cincinnati's offense (#38) towers over a Miami (OH) offense ranked #116, while the defenses are closer (#59 to #73). The total is set at 49.5. Series history reinforces the lean: Cincinnati holds a 9-1 edge and took the 2024 meeting 27-16.
Early results fit the ratings. Cincinnati opened 34-15 over Boston College and 62-10 over Western Carolina, while Miami (OH) was buried 14-59 at Pittsburgh before beating Holy Cross 45-7. Season sims give Cincinnati 6.8 projected wins and 4.6% Playoff odds against Miami (OH)'s 7 wins but 1.4% Playoff odds, a divergence between floor and ceiling that this matchup embodies.
The model leans harder on Cincinnati than the market, and every input, from ratings to units to series, points the same way.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Miami (OH)'s win price; Cincinnati's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Miami (OH) is favored, below it Cincinnati is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Miami (OH) vs Cincinnati game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Miami (OH) vs Cincinnati market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Miami (OH) and Cincinnati play?
Week 3 of 2026, on Sep 19, 2026 at Cincinnati.
Who is favored?
The model projects Cincinnati by 16.4 (84% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Cincinnati lead 9-1 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →