Florida International vs Florida Atlantic
Florida International visit Florida Atlantic in Week 3. The model favors Florida Atlantic by 7.3. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.
SP+ rates Florida Atlantic (-8, rank 106) a modest step ahead of Florida International (-11.5, rank 112), giving the home side a 64 percent win probability and a projected 5.9-point margin. The consensus market is slightly firmer at Florida Atlantic -7 with a 62.3 total and a 66 percent implied edge, and the ProphetX exchange pushes further still: Florida Atlantic -240 (71 percent) against Florida International +225 (31 percent). Every layer agrees on direction, with the exchange the outlier on conviction.
The ratings gap is only 3.5 points, and the unit ranks explain the tightness. Florida Atlantic's offense (#60) clearly outranks Florida International's (#103), but its defense (#127) grades below Florida International's (#117), which caps the projected margin and supports the 62.3 total. Series history cuts the other way: Florida Atlantic leads 8-3, yet Florida International took the last meeting 38-28 in 2025.
Form is symmetrical. Both enter 2-1 in profile, each with one loss and one win: Florida International fell at South Florida 9-19 before beating Buffalo 33-20, while Florida Atlantic was routed at Florida 21-66 then edged Navy 38-30. Season simulations are near-even at 6.4 and 6.2 projected wins, framing a coin-flip-adjacent game the market has tilted home.
Model and market both land on Florida Atlantic, but the exchange price is the most confident read at 71 percent.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Florida International's win price; Florida Atlantic's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Florida International is favored, below it Florida Atlantic is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Florida International vs Florida Atlantic game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Florida International vs Florida Atlantic market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Florida International and Florida Atlantic play?
Week 3 of 2026, on Sep 19, 2026 at Florida Atlantic.
Who is favored?
The model projects Florida Atlantic by 7.3 (67% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Florida Atlantic lead 8-3 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →