Wyoming vs Colorado State
Wyoming visit Colorado State in Week 1. The model favors Colorado State by 10.8. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ frames this as a coin flip between two teams rated within eight tenths of a point: Wyoming at -10.8 (104th) edges Colorado State at -11.6 (107th). The model still leans host, giving Colorado State 54% and a projected margin of 1.6 points, largely a function of home field rather than talent. Neither side profiles well: Wyoming's offense ranks 122nd and Colorado State's 118th, while Wyoming's 65th-ranked defense is the best unit on the field and the reason the visitor stays close.
The market pushes harder toward Colorado State than the model does. The consensus line of -3 implies 57% for the host, and the ProphetX exchange goes further at -150, or 60%, against Wyoming's +142 (41%). That gap between a 54% model read and a 57-to-60% market read is the tradable disagreement, and it favors the Wyoming side. The total sits at 46.5, consistent with two bottom-tier offenses.
Series history cuts against the price. Wyoming leads the meetings 8-4 and took the 2025 game 28-0, a shutout that the market appears to be discounting. Season simulations keep both projects modest: Wyoming 5.8 wins, Colorado State 4.2, with neither given real Playoff or title odds.
Model calls it a near coin flip while the market prices Colorado State at 57-60%, leaving value on the Wyoming side.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Wyoming's win price; Colorado State's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Wyoming is favored, below it Colorado State is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Wyoming vs Colorado State game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Wyoming vs Colorado State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Wyoming and Colorado State play?
Week 1 of 2026, on Sep 5, 2026 at Colorado State.
Who is favored?
The model projects Colorado State by 10.8 (74% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Wyoming lead 8-4 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →