Temple vs Toledo
Temple visit Toledo in Week 3. The model favors Toledo by 3.5. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these teams by just 1.3 rating points, Toledo at -4.9 (rank 85) over Temple at -6.2 (rank 89), and projects Toledo by 3.7 for a 59% win probability. The market prices the edge steeper: Toledo -5.7 with a 64% implied number, and the ProphetX exchange steeper still at Toledo -210 (68%) versus Temple +194 (34%). That spread between the model's 59% and the exchange's 68% marks Temple as the contract the numbers favor relative to price.
The unit ranks explain Toledo's lean. Its defense (#65) outranks Temple's offense (#73), while Temple's defense (#113) is the clear liability against a Toledo offense that itself rates only #110. The series is thin, Temple 0-1, with the lone meeting in 2015 going to Toledo 32-17.
Season context tilts the same way: Toledo projects 7.4 wins and 2.3% Playoff odds against Temple's 6.2 wins and 1%. Results are mixed for both. Temple handled Rhode Island 38-14 but fell to Penn State 9-27, while Toledo lost at Michigan State 20-30 before routing Central Connecticut 63-10. The total sits at 50.5.
Model and market both back Toledo, but the exchange's 68% runs hot against SP+'s 59%, leaving Temple the value side.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Temple's win price; Toledo's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Temple is favored, below it Toledo is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Temple vs Toledo game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Temple vs Toledo market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Temple and Toledo play?
Week 3 of 2026, on Sep 19, 2026 at Toledo.
Who is favored?
The model projects Toledo by 3.5 (58% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Toledo lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →