Stanford vs Duke
Stanford visit Duke in Week 3. The model favors Duke by 16.8. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these ACC sides clearly: Duke rates 6.9 (rank 48) against Stanford at -3.9 (rank 82), and the model projects Duke by 13.2 with a 79 percent win probability. The consensus line across two books is more cautious at Duke -9.7 with a 50.8 total, implying 72 percent, while the ProphetX exchange sits between them at Duke -335 (77 percent) and Stanford +310 (24 percent). The gap between the model's 13.2-point projection and the market's 9.7 is the central disagreement, with SP+ the more confident of Duke.
The unit ranks explain the spread. Duke's offense ranks 29th against a Stanford defense at 69th, a mismatch the model leans on, while both defenses grade similarly (Stanford 69, Duke 72) and Stanford's offense lags at 100th. Results reinforce it: Duke is 2-0, grinding out 17-3 over Tulane and 31-27 at Illinois, whereas Stanford split, beating Hawai'i 37-27 before a 6-45 loss to Miami. Season simulations project Duke 7.4 wins to Stanford 4.4, with Playoff odds of 4.6 percent versus 0.1 percent.
Model and market both land on Duke, but SP+ prices the edge wider than the 9.7-point line implies.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Stanford's win price; Duke's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Stanford is favored, below it Duke is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Stanford vs Duke game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Stanford vs Duke market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Stanford and Duke play?
Week 3 of 2026, on Sep 19, 2026 at Duke.
Who is favored?
The model projects Duke by 16.8 (85% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →