Ohio vs South Alabama
Ohio visit South Alabama in Week 3. The model favors Ohio by 2. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ frames this as a coin flip with a lean: South Alabama at -10.3 (rank 110) sits barely two points ahead of Ohio at -12.3 (rank 114), and the model projects the Jaguars by 4.4 with a 61% win probability. The market pushes harder in the same direction, pricing South Alabama -6.2 with a 65% implied edge, while the ProphetX exchange stretches it further to 71%. That spread between a 61% model read and a 71% exchange price marks Ohio at +235 as the side the numbers treat more kindly than the market does.
Unit ranks explain the closeness: South Alabama's #88 offense outpaces Ohio's #129, but its #123 defense is the weakest unit on the board, and Ohio's #77 defense is the strongest. Results this season split evenly, each team 1-1: South Alabama beat SE Louisiana 39-14 then fell at Tulane 24-28, while Ohio lost at Nebraska 21-49 before edging Jacksonville State 29-27. Both profiles project near .500, 6.6 wins for Ohio and 6.2 for South Alabama, with identical 0.3% Playoff odds.
Series history favors the visitor: Ohio holds a 1-0 edge, winning the 2024 meeting 27-20, which cuts against the market's home lean.
The model likes South Alabama by 4.4, but the exchange's 71% price overshoots a 61% read, leaving Ohio +235 the value side.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Ohio's win price; South Alabama's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Ohio is favored, below it South Alabama is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Oct 16.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Ohio vs South Alabama game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Ohio vs South Alabama market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Ohio and South Alabama play?
Week 3 of 2026, on Sep 19, 2026 at South Alabama.
Who is favored?
The model projects Ohio by 2 (55% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Ohio lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →