Nevada vs Middle Tennessee
Nevada visit Middle Tennessee in Week 3. The model favors Nevada by 6.9. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these teams sharply: Nevada rates -7.6 (rank 105) against Middle Tennessee at -21.3 (rank 132), and the model projects Nevada by 11.3 with a 75% win probability. The market is far more cautious, hanging Middle Tennessee +3.5 with a 50.5 total and pricing Nevada at just 58%. The ProphetX exchange pushes closer to the model at Nevada -172, or 63%. That leaves a 12-to-17 point probability gap between the model and both market reads, all of it favoring the road side.
The unit ranks reinforce the rating spread. Nevada's defense (#84) is the strongest of the four units on the field, while Middle Tennessee's defense (#135) is the weakest, and its offense (#124) also trails Nevada's (#113). Both projections are modest across a 10,000-run simulation: Nevada 5.6 wins, Middle Tennessee 4.3, with neither given Playoff or title equity.
The series cuts against the numbers. Middle Tennessee leads 1-0, taking the lone 2025 meeting 14-13. Form is mixed: Nevada blew out Western Kentucky 49-14 but fell 7-20 to Montana State, while Middle Tennessee handled Murray State 38-14 before a 26-28 loss at Marshall. The ratings, model margin and exchange price all point one way; the close 2025 result is the only case for the tighter market line.
SP+ pegs Nevada well clear of a market that only shades it, leaving the road side the value.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Nevada's win price; Middle Tennessee's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Nevada is favored, below it Middle Tennessee is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Nevada vs Middle Tennessee game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Nevada vs Middle Tennessee market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Nevada and Middle Tennessee play?
Week 3 of 2026, on Sep 19, 2026 at Middle Tennessee.
Who is favored?
The model projects Nevada by 6.9 (66% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Middle Tennessee lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →