NC State vs Vanderbilt
NC State visit Vanderbilt in Week 3. The model favors Vanderbilt by 7.1. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these teams by barely two points, rating Vanderbilt 10.1 (35th) against NC State's 8 (41st), and the projection lands on Vanderbilt by 4.5. That gives the home side a 61% model win probability versus the market's 58% on a consensus line of Vanderbilt -3.5 with a 50.5 total. The model sits a hair above the price, so the two views agree on direction and differ only marginally on magnitude, leaving little edge for either contract.
The unit ranks explain the lean: both defenses grade identically at 56th, so the gap traces to offense, where Vanderbilt ranks 22nd against NC State's 31st. Series history offers only a stale data point, with NC State holding a 1-0 edge from a 41-17 win in 2016. The season simulations frame two similar profiles, NC State projected for 6.9 wins and Vanderbilt 6.4, with Playoff odds of 4.1% and 4.7% respectively.
Results this season cut against a clean read. NC State was dismantled 8-34 at Virginia before a 73-0 rout of Richmond, a split of blowouts that muddies any true level. Vanderbilt handled Austin Peay 28-9 and edged Delaware 35-26, wins over lesser competition that neither confirm nor undercut the 22nd-ranked offense. The market's 0.7% title price on Vanderbilt roughly matches the model's 0.4%.
Model and market both favor Vanderbilt by a field goal, with the offense-rank gap the only real separator between two 56th-ranked defenses.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as NC State's win price; Vanderbilt's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line NC State is favored, below it Vanderbilt is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the NC State vs Vanderbilt game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the NC State vs Vanderbilt market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do NC State and Vanderbilt play?
Week 3 of 2026, on Sep 19, 2026 at Vanderbilt.
Who is favored?
The model projects Vanderbilt by 7.1 (67% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
NC State lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →