Louisiana Tech vs Baylor
Louisiana Tech visit Baylor in Week 3. The model favors Baylor by 17.4. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these teams cleanly: Baylor rates 7.4 (46th) against Louisiana Tech's minus-5.3 (86th), a gap that yields an 82 percent model win probability and a projected Baylor margin of 15.1 points. The market pushes harder, posting Baylor minus-19.2 with a 53.3 total and an 88 percent implied win probability, while the ProphetX exchange sits at minus-900 (90 percent) on the favorite and plus-820 (11 percent) on the visitor. That four-point spread between the model number and the consensus line is the central disagreement: the market prices roughly a touchdown more cushion than the ratings support.
Unit ranks favor Baylor's offense (26th) over a Louisiana Tech attack (89th) and defense (90th) that both grade near the bottom, though Baylor's own defense checks in at 73rd. Season form is mixed on both sides: Louisiana Tech buried Northwestern State 80-6 before losing 45-14 at LSU, while Baylor edged a 17-16 loss at Auburn and handled Prairie View A&M 44-3. Projected win totals are close, 6.4 for Louisiana Tech versus 5.9 for Baylor, and neither simulation profile reaches meaningful title equity.
The model likes Baylor by 15.1 but trails the market's 19.2 spread, leaving Louisiana Tech's plus price the more defensible side.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Louisiana Tech's win price; Baylor's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Louisiana Tech is favored, below it Baylor is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Louisiana Tech vs Baylor game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Louisiana Tech vs Baylor market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Louisiana Tech and Baylor play?
Week 3 of 2026, on Sep 19, 2026 at Baylor.
Who is favored?
The model projects Baylor by 17.4 (85% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →