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Matchup preview

James Madison vs San Diego State

James Madison visit San Diego State in Week 3. The model favors James Madison by 17.2. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
85%
15%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

Matchup odds
Consensus line · 2 books
Spread
SDSU -3
Total (O/U)
46.5
Favorite
SDSU
Moneyline win probability (implied from the spread)

Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.

Matchup odds price history
The market to win this game · daily prices, colored by the favorite
James Madison99%+49 ptsvsSan Diego State1%-49 pts
0%25%50%75%100%James Madison favoredSan Diego State favoredSep 9Sep 12Sep 14Sep 16Sep 18Sep 20Sep 21

Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as James Madison's win price; San Diego State's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line James Madison is favored, below it San Diego State is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Oct 16.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#40SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#109
#27FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#67
1905EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1528
0.7%Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.-
James MadisonSan Diego Statesolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
More Week 3 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the James Madison vs San Diego State game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the James Madison vs San Diego State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do James Madison and San Diego State play?

Week 3 of 2026, on Sep 20, 2026 at San Diego State.

Who is favored?

The model projects James Madison by 17.2 (85% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

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