Florida International vs South Florida
Florida International visit South Florida in Week 1. The model favors South Florida by 16.6. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
The model and the market land in near-lockstep on this Week 1 opener. SP+ projects South Florida by 15.2 points and assigns an 82 percent win probability, while the consensus line sits at South Florida -14.2 with a total of 52 and an implied 81 percent. The ratings gap frames it: South Florida grades at -1.7 (rank 74) against Florida International at -14.5 (rank 115), a 12.8-point separation before any adjustment. On the exchange, ProphetX offers South Florida -570 (implied 85 percent) and Florida International +490 (implied 17 percent), a touch heavier on the favorite than either the SP+ 82 percent or the market-implied 81 percent.
Unit ranks point the same direction. South Florida's offense (#56) holds a clear edge over a Florida International defense ranked #123, and the Panther offense (#102) faces a Bull defense (#94) that rates as the home side's weaker unit. That defensive softness helps explain a total of 52 despite the double-digit spread. Season simulations reinforce the tiers: South Florida projects to 7.5 wins with 4.2 percent Playoff odds, Florida International to 6 wins at 0.3 percent, neither with title equity.
The small ProphetX premium on South Florida is the only daylight between sources, and it leans further onto a favorite the model and consensus already price at roughly four-to-one.
Model, consensus and exchange cluster on South Florida by two touchdowns, with the ProphetX price the only line leaning heavier on the favorite.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Florida International's win price; South Florida's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Florida International is favored, below it South Florida is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Florida International vs South Florida game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Florida International vs South Florida market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Florida International and South Florida play?
Week 1 of 2026, on Sep 5, 2026 at South Florida.
Who is favored?
The model projects South Florida by 16.6 (84% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →