Coastal Carolina vs Delaware
Coastal Carolina visit Delaware in Week 3. The model favors Delaware by 0.3. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ sees a coin flip with a lean: Coastal Carolina rates -9.5 (109th), Delaware -8.8 (108th), a gap of seven tenths of a point that yields a projected Delaware margin of 3.1 and a 57 percent home win probability against 43 percent. The consensus line pushes further, Delaware -4.7 with a 57.3 total and a 61-39 split, and the ProphetX exchange is the most one-sided read of all: Delaware -194 (66 percent implied) versus Coastal Carolina +182 (35 percent). Both priced sources sit a notch beyond the model's tepid home edge.
The unit ranks explain the modest total: Delaware's offense (82) tops Coastal's (94), but neither defense holds up, ranking 114th and 119th. Season form is a wash. Coastal opened with a 24-31 loss at West Virginia before a 45-7 rout of Fordham; Delaware blitzed Merrimack 42-7 then fell 26-35 at Vanderbilt. Simulations echo the tie, projecting 6.2 Delaware wins to Coastal's 6.0, with Playoff odds near zero for each.
The disagreement worth noting is degree, not direction: model, market and exchange all favor Delaware, but the exchange prices roughly nine points of win probability above SP+.
Every source leans Delaware, but the exchange's 66 percent overshoots the model's 57 percent on a near-even ratings matchup.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Coastal Carolina's win price; Delaware's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Coastal Carolina is favored, below it Delaware is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Oct 16.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Coastal Carolina vs Delaware game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Coastal Carolina vs Delaware market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Coastal Carolina and Delaware play?
Week 3 of 2026, on Sep 19, 2026 at Delaware.
Who is favored?
The model projects Delaware by 0.3 (51% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →