Bowling Green vs Iowa State
Bowling Green visit Iowa State in Week 3. The model favors Iowa State by 30.2. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ and the market land on the same read: the model rates Iowa State 3.5 (60th) against Bowling Green at -17.5 (128th), a 21-point ratings gap that projects a 23.4-point Iowa State margin. The consensus line sits at -23.5 with a 44.3 total, and both the model and the market price Iowa State at 92 percent. There is no disagreement to exploit on the moneyline side; the only mild spread is at the number, where the market asks for a point more than the projection. The ProphetX exchange stretches the tail further, offering Iowa State at -1800 (95 percent) and Bowling Green at +1450 (6 percent).
The unit ranks explain the edge: Iowa State's defense (#38) towers over a Bowling Green offense ranked #136, and the Cyclone offense (#89) still outranks a Falcon defense at #103. Results reinforce the profile. Iowa State beat Southeast Missouri State 38-10 and lost 13-16 at Iowa, while Bowling Green has dropped both starts, 13-20 to Tarleton State and 7-56 at Nebraska. Season simulations give Iowa State 5.5 projected wins and a 1.6 percent Playoff chance against Bowling Green's 4.1 wins and zero.
Model and market fully agree at 92 percent Iowa State, with the only friction sitting at the -23.5 number versus a 23.4 projection.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Bowling Green's win price; Iowa State's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Bowling Green is favored, below it Iowa State is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Bowling Green vs Iowa State game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Bowling Green vs Iowa State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Bowling Green and Iowa State play?
Week 3 of 2026, on Sep 19, 2026 at Iowa State.
Who is favored?
The model projects Iowa State by 30.2 (97% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →