Boston College vs Duke
Boston College visit Duke in Week 9. The model favors Duke by 10.7. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these ACC sides cleanly: Duke rates 6.8 (rank 47) against Boston College at -1.5 (rank 78), a projected Duke margin of 10.7 that outruns the market number of Duke -7 on a 47.8 total. The model prices Duke at 74 percent, the consensus line at 66 percent, and the ProphetX exchange at 72 percent (Duke -255, Boston College +240 for an implied 29 percent). Every source points the same direction; the disagreement is only about size, with the model the most confident of the three.
The unit ranks explain the edge. Duke grades ahead on both lines, offense 49 to 90 and defense 44 to 59, so Boston College faces a deficit on each side rather than one exploitable mismatch. Season form adds nuance: Duke sits 5-2 with wins over Tulane, Illinois, Stanford and Virginia but losses at Georgia Tech (25-28) and to North Carolina (20-24), both one-score games. Boston College is 4-3, capped by a 49-27 win at Georgia Tech, with losses to Cincinnati, Virginia Tech and SMU.
Projections frame the stakes: Duke at 7.4 wins and 2.7 percent Playoff odds, Boston College at 5.6 wins and 0 percent. The series is tight at 1-2, Duke taking the last meeting 38-31 in 2022, but the ratings and the three win-probability reads leave little daylight for the underdog here.
The model leans harder on Duke than the market does, and the ratings gap backs that lean.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Boston College's win price; Duke's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Boston College is favored, below it Duke is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Boston College vs Duke game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Boston College vs Duke market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Boston College and Duke play?
Week 9 of 2026, on Oct 31, 2026 at Duke.
Who is favored?
The model projects Duke by 10.7 (74% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Duke lead 2-1 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →