Akron vs Minnesota
Akron visit Minnesota in Week 3. The model favors Minnesota by 29.1. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ pegs Minnesota at 4.7 (rank 56) against Akron at -18.6 (rank 129), a 23.3-point ratings gap that the model converts into a projected Minnesota margin of 25.7 and a 94 percent win probability. The consensus of two books sets Minnesota -24 with a total of 49.3, implying 93 percent, and the ProphetX exchange goes further at -2200, or 96 percent. The model margin sitting just past the -24 line marks a rare case where SP+ and the market align almost exactly, leaving Akron's 6 to 7 percent as the only sliver of disagreement.
The unit ranks reinforce the separation: Minnesota's defense (#34) and offense (#77) clear Akron's #109 defense and #135 offense on both sides. Season form is mixed for each. Minnesota buried Eastern Illinois 59-7 but lost 13-38 to Mississippi State; Akron fell 16-38 at Wake Forest before handling Robert Morris 45-10. Simulations project 5.5 wins for Minnesota and 4.9 for Akron, with neither carrying meaningful Playoff equity at 1.1 and 0 percent.
Model and market both land near Minnesota -24, and the 23.3-point ratings gap leaves Akron just a 6 to 7 percent longshot.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Akron's win price; Minnesota's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Akron is favored, below it Minnesota is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Akron vs Minnesota game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Akron vs Minnesota market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Akron and Minnesota play?
Week 3 of 2026, on Sep 19, 2026 at Minnesota.
Who is favored?
The model projects Minnesota by 29.1 (96% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →