The model reads the entire Kalshi 2026 national title board as trading above its own fair value, so the question is not who is cheap in absolute terms but where the markup is thinnest. That edge sits at the top: Oregon and Miami carry the highest fair value at 9.1% while trading at a best price of 12c, the tightest gap on the board. The fattest markups, measured against fair value, sit on the longshots.
How the model defines a mispriced win-total
The method is the same one applied to any futures market. The model takes the posted contract prices, strips out the vig, and returns a de-vigged fair value for each team. A contract is flagged when its traded price and that fair value diverge; the size of the gap is the cost of entry.
On the current title board, every contract prices above fair value. Oregon trades at 12c against a 9.1% fair value, and the pattern repeats down the list. That is expected for an exchange market: the best available ask carries a spread over true probability, and that spread is what a buyer absorbs.
The useful signal is relative, not absolute. Comparing each price to its own fair value shows where the market's markup is lean and where it is heavy, which is the closest read on value the title board offers right now.
Which teams carry the widest markup?
The longshots do. Oklahoma and Ole Miss both show a 2% fair value against a 3c best price, and Texas A&M sits at 2.8% fair value versus 4c. In each case the premium over fair value is proportionally larger than anything at the top of the board, which is the standard longshot tax across futures markets.
By contrast, the model's highest-rated teams pay the smallest relative surcharge. That inverts the instinct to hunt value among the field: the cleaner prices sit with the favorites, not the darts.
Where the thinnest edges sit at the top
Oregon and Miami anchor the board at 9.1% fair value and 12c. Texas and Notre Dame follow at 8.3% and 11c, then Ohio State and Indiana at 6.7% and 9c. The prices step down in clean tiers that track the model's ordering, which is a sign the top of the market is efficiently graded.
Indiana is the name worth isolating. The model rates it level with Ohio State at 6.7% fair value and 9c, a placement well above where a program of its recent profile would typically price. The market has already moved to meet the model there, so the contract is priced, not overlooked.
The takeaway for the top tier: there is no glaring gift, but the surcharge over fair value is at its smallest, which matters when the same dollar buys a higher-probability outcome.
How to read these prices before trading
A 12c contract implies roughly a one-in-eight outcome, and the model's 9.1% fair value says the true figure is a touch lower. That gap is the market's edge over the buyer, not the buyer's edge over the market. Reading the board this way keeps expectations honest.
All figures here are Kalshi best prices as of July 3, 2026, and they move with liquidity and news. The prices and the model can both be wrong, and none of this is financial advice. For traders comparing venues, the Kalshi FADE reference is where these specific title contracts are quoted; fair value is the yardstick, and the tightest markups currently sit with Oregon, Miami, Texas and Notre Dame.
