The model's value screen flags Alabama and Oklahoma as the cheapest college football contracts relative to fair value. Alabama trades at 2c on Polymarket against a model fair value of 2.3%, the only name on the title board priced below the model. Oklahoma sits at 2c versus 2.1%, effectively at par. Everywhere else on the board, price runs ahead of the model.
How the model spots a mispriced team
The method is simple to state. The model builds a de-vigged consensus fair value for each team from prices across Kalshi and Polymarket, then compares that number to the cheapest venue price available. When the best price sits below fair value, the contract screens cheap. When it sits above, the buyer is paying a premium to the model.
On the current title board, most contracts carry a premium. That is expected: quoted prices bake in a margin, and favorites tend to trade richest because demand concentrates at the top. The screen is not about who is likely to win; it is about where the price and the model disagree by the most cents.
Season win-total contracts trade on the same venues and respond to the same fair-value logic. The title board is the cleanest cross-team read the model has, so it serves as the reference for where season equity is priced tightest.
Which teams screen cheapest?
Alabama is the standout. A 2c price against 2.3% fair value is the one spot on the board where the cheapest venue undercuts the model. Oklahoma is next, with 2c against 2.1%, a contract trading at par rather than at a markup.
Among the favorites, Indiana and Miami show the tightest premiums. Indiana prices 9c on Kalshi against 8.5% fair value, and Miami prices 8c against 7.6%. Neither is cheap in absolute terms, but both sit closer to the model than the teams above them. LSU, at 6c on Polymarket versus 4.9%, carries a wider gap for a mid-board name.
The chart below sets each team's model fair value against its best available price. The two columns move together at the bottom of the board and separate at the top.
Where price runs ahead of the model
The rich end of the board is concentrated in the co-favorites. Ohio State and Notre Dame both price 13c on Kalshi against 11.1% fair value, the widest premiums on the screen. Texas prices 12c against 10.2%, and Oregon 11c against 9.9%. Georgia rounds out the group at 10c against 8.8%.
These are not verdicts against the teams; they are notes on cost. A buyer at the top of the board pays roughly two cents over model on the leaders, which is the price of crowding into the market's preferred names.
The best-price column below shows how the cheapest venue quote climbs as fair value rises, with Alabama and Oklahoma anchoring the floor at 2c.
How to trade the value
Venue matters. Alabama, Oklahoma and LSU show their best price on Polymarket, while Ohio State, Notre Dame, Texas, Oregon, Georgia, Indiana and Miami price cheapest on Kalshi. Reading the model against the cheapest venue is the point of the screen; paying up at the wrong exchange erases the edge before the season starts.
For traders sizing new positions, Polymarket runs code TGSWC (deposit $20, get a $50 trading bonus) and Kalshi runs code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500). Both venues carry the contracts referenced here.
None of this is a forecast of results. A fair value is an estimate, and both the model and the market can be wrong. The screen describes relative value on the board as of the latest prices, and nothing more.
