Notre Dame enters the 2026 cycle priced as a genuine title contender: the model's de-vigged fair value is 8.5%, with a best available price of 11c on Kalshi. That ties the Irish for second on the board with Oregon and leaves them a tenth of a point behind Texas at 8.9%.
The headline is structural as much as it is numerical. As a football Independent, Notre Dame carries no conference title market, so the national title contract is the only futures lever the market offers on the program.
What is Notre Dame's 2026 national title fair value?
The model's fair value for Notre Dame is 8.5%. That figure is the de-vigged consensus, stripped of the overround baked into the raw quote, and it slots the Irish into the top tier of the field alongside Oregon and just below Texas.
On price, Notre Dame trades at 11c on Kalshi, the same quote attached to both Texas and Oregon. The three teams sit at the front of the pricing ladder, ahead of the 9c cluster of Ohio State and Indiana and the 8c line on Miami.
The gap between the 11c quote and the 8.5% fair value is the market's overround, not a discount. The model does not read a standalone edge in the Notre Dame contract at its current price; the contract is priced roughly in line with where the de-vigged consensus places the program.
Why does Notre Dame have no conference title odds?
Notre Dame plays as an Independent in football, with no conference championship game to qualify for. There is no conference title market to quote, which sets the Irish apart from every other team near the top of the board.
For most contenders, conference and national title markets give two related but distinct ways to express a view. For Notre Dame, the national title contract stands alone. The path to that market resolving runs through the College Football Playoff rather than a league championship, which concentrates the program's entire futures profile into a single line.
Where does the model stand versus the market price?
The model's job is to translate a fair value from the raw quote, and on Notre Dame the two are close once the vig is removed. An 11c price maps to roughly 11% implied before de-vigging; the consensus fair value lands at 8.5% after the overround is stripped out.
That alignment means the Irish are neither a fade nor a flagged value at the current number. The model treats Notre Dame as fairly priced relative to the field, with the contract carrying the same top-tier quote as the two teams the model rates marginally differently, Texas above and Oregon level.
Prices and the model can both be wrong, and a single national title line gives Notre Dame less room to diverge from consensus than teams with a second conference market to anchor against. Traders weighing the Irish on Kalshi (promo code FADE) are pricing a Playoff-only path with no league-title hedge available.
How does Notre Dame compare on the title board?
By fair value, Notre Dame sits in a three-way conversation at the top. Texas leads at 8.9%, with Notre Dame and Oregon level at 8.5%. The next tier, Ohio State and Indiana at 6.9% and Miami at 6.1%, trails by a clear margin.
The pricing ladder mirrors the model. Notre Dame's 11c quote is the joint-shortest on the board, shared with Texas and Oregon, while the chasing pack sits at 9c and 8c. The market and the model agree on the shape of the top tier even if they split hairs on the order within it.
Where is the value, and where is the cheapest venue?
The cheapest and only listed venue for the Notre Dame title contract is Kalshi at 11c. There is no cross-venue arbitrage to capture here, since the consensus draws from a single source on this market.
The takeaway is that Notre Dame is a top-tier name priced like one. The model sees no discount at 11c, but it also sees no reason to fade a program it rates inside the top three by fair value. With no conference market to diversify the position, the Irish remain a clean, single-line read on a Playoff run.
