Make-the-playoff value sits with Miami and Alabama. They are the only two title-board contenders whose best available price trades under the model's fair value: Miami at 8c on Kalshi against a fair value of 8.6%, and Alabama at 1c on Polymarket against 1.9%. Everywhere else in the contender tier, price meets or exceeds fair value, so the discount is narrow and concentrated.
Which playoff contenders are underpriced right now?
A contract is underpriced when its best market price sits below the model's fair value. On the current title board, that describes exactly two names. Miami's 8c on Kalshi undercuts an 8.6% fair value, and Alabama's 1c on Polymarket undercuts a 1.9% fair value. The Alabama gap is the widest in relative terms: a one-cent price against a fair value nearly double that.
The rest of the upper tier tells the opposite story. Indiana trades at 9c against an 8.5% fair value, and LSU trades at 6c against 4.8%. Both carry a premium, not a discount, so neither screens as value for a playoff path. Texas A&M (2c vs 2.1%) and Oklahoma (2c vs 1.9%) sit close enough to fair value to be treated as efficient rather than cheap.
How title prices proxy playoff equity
There is no standalone make-the-playoff contract on the boards priced here, so title markets do the work. The logic is direct: a team cannot win the national title without first reaching the 12-team field, so title equity is a lower bound on playoff equity. A contract trading under fair value on the title board is, by extension, trading under fair value on the path into the bracket.
That framing rewards contenders with real ceilings whose price has lagged. Miami fits: an 8.6% title fair value places it inside the top tier of the board, yet its best price is a cent under that mark. Alabama sits lower on raw probability but shows the same signal, with price trailing fair value. The read is about the gap between price and model, not the absolute number.
The gap between price and fair value
The two charts below show the split. Fair value ranks Miami and Indiana near the top of this group, with LSU, Texas A&M, Alabama and Oklahoma forming the tail. Best price tells you what each contract actually costs. Miami's 8c and Alabama's 1c are the two entries that come in under their fair-value marks; the others match or exceed them.
The takeaway is that value is scarce here, and it clusters. The favorites are efficiently to richly priced, and most of the second tier trades at or above fair. Only Miami and Alabama offer a genuine discount relative to the model.
Where to trade the cheapest price
Venue matters because the discount lives at specific books. Miami's best price is 8c on Kalshi, which holds the sharpest lines on the favorites and the near-tier. Alabama's best price is 1c on Polymarket, consistent with Polymarket carrying the tail of the board. LSU also prices best on Polymarket at 6c, though that number sits above fair value.
For traders comparing entry points, Kalshi's promo is code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500) and Polymarket's is code TGSWC (deposit $20, get a $50 trading bonus). Neither changes the underlying edge; they only affect the cost of getting a position on.
What the underpricing does not tell you
A price under fair value is a model signal, not a guarantee. The model can be wrong, prices can move on news and liquidity, and a one-cent gap on Miami is thin enough to close on a single market update. Alabama's wider relative gap comes with the lowest absolute probability in this group, which is where variance runs highest.
The honest summary: the make-the-playoff board is efficient at the top and only lightly mispriced below it. Miami and Alabama are the two contracts trading under the model's read; the favorites, from Ohio State at 13c to Oregon at 11c, all carry a price floor above fair value and offer no such discount.
