The model's loudest dark-horse signal is Indiana, carried at a 6.9% fair value, tied with Ohio State for fourth on the national-title board, yet still available for 9c on Kalshi. Among the deeper longshots, the tightest price-to-value reads sit with LSU (4.9% fair value, 6c) and Miami (5.7%, 7c).
None of these contracts trades below its fair value: the best price is an ask, and every ask carries vig. The edge here is relative, identifying which longshots the model rates higher than their single-digit pricing implies, and where the markup over fair value is thinnest.
Which longshot teams does the model rate highest?
Below the Texas (9.4%), Notre Dame (8.6%) and Oregon (8.2%) top tier, fair value clusters quickly. Indiana leads the dark-horse group at 6.9%, with Miami at 5.7%, Georgia at 5.3% and LSU at 4.9%. Georgia and LSU are traditional powers priced as longshots; Indiana and Miami are the contenders the casual board is least likely to slot this high.
The Indiana number is the standout. A 6.9% fair value places a non-traditional title program level with Ohio State and ahead of Miami, Georgia and LSU, all while its contract sits at single-digit cents.
Where is the gap between price and fair value tightest?
Every best price sits above fair value because crossing the spread costs. The proportional markup is what separates the group. LSU is the tightest at 6c against a 4.9% fair value, roughly a 22% markup, with Miami close behind at 7c over 5.7%.
The pattern inverts as the contracts get cheaper. Texas A&M (4c over 2.9%) runs near a 38% markup, while Oklahoma and Ole Miss (3c over 2%) both carry a 50% markup, the steepest on the board. The lottery-ticket prices look cheap in absolute cents but are the most expensive relative to the model.
Is Indiana a real contender or a market mirage?
The model treats Indiana as a genuine top-six title outcome, not a novelty. A 6.9% fair value implies the contract should clear roughly seven cents on the dollar before vig, and the 9c ask is consistent with that read rather than a runaway longshot price.
The model can be wrong, and a single number is not a forecast of any result. What the figure does say is that the market and the model agree Indiana belongs in the contender conversation, which is unusual pricing for a program outside the sport's traditional shortlist.
The deep longshots: Texas A&M, Oklahoma and Ole Miss
The SEC trio anchors the bottom of the eligible board. Texas A&M sits at 2.9% fair value (4c), with Oklahoma and Ole Miss both at 2% (3c). These are the thinnest fair values among the teams tracked, and they carry the widest proportional markups.
For a dark-horse thesis, the appeal is the small absolute outlay rather than any model edge in the buyer's favor. The fair value supports the price, but the 50% markup on the 3c names leaves little cushion if the model is even slightly generous.
How to read and trade these prices
Every contract above currently shows its best price on Kalshi, so venue selection is straightforward for this board. The Kalshi promo code is FADE. Prices and the model both move, and a quoted best price can shift before a contract is filled.
The honest summary: Indiana is the model's clearest dark horse on rating, LSU and Miami offer the tightest markups, and the deep SEC longshots are cheap in cents but rich in vig. None of this is financial advice, and the model, like the market, can be wrong.
