The model's cleanest conference-title value this season sits at the bottom of the SEC ladder, not the top. Oklahoma trades at 2c against a 2.5% fair value, the only contract on the board priced under the model. Every conference front-runner, by contrast, carries a premium over its fair value.
Conference-title contracts are not broken out in the current data, but the national-title board is the cleanest public read on those races, since both draw on the same team-strength inputs. Sorted by league, the board shows the Big Ten crowded at the top, the SEC deep but flat, and the ACC funneling through a single leader.
How the conferences stack up on the model's board
The Big Ten owns the densest top tier. Ohio State sits at an 11.1% fair value and Oregon at 11%, effectively level, with Indiana a step back at 8.8%. No single team runs away with the league on the model's read, which spreads conference equity across three names rather than one.
The SEC is the deepest field but the flattest at the top. Texas leads at 9.7%, Georgia follows at 8.5%, then the board drops to LSU at 5.2% before a long tail through Alabama (3%), Ole Miss (2.8%) and Oklahoma (2.5%). No SEC team is priced above Texas.
The ACC funnels through Miami, alone on the board at 7.9% fair value. With no other ACC team present, Miami's conference path reads cleaner than its national number implies. Notre Dame, tied for the model's top team at 11.1%, is an independent and carries no conference market at all.
The chart below shows the model's front-runner in each grouping, side by side.
Where does the model see conference value this season?
The value question comes down to price versus fair value. The top of every league charges vig: Ohio State at 13c over an 11.1% fair value, Oregon at 12c over 11%, Texas at 11c over 9.7%. Miami is the tightest of the upper tier, its 8c best price sitting barely above a 7.9% fair value.
The edge, such as it is, lives at the SEC tail. Oklahoma's 2c best price is the only contract under the model, below its 2.5% fair value. Alabama at 3c sits directly on a 3% fair value, and Ole Miss at 3c trades a hair over 2.8%. These are longshots by design, but they are the contracts the market is not overpaying for.
The SEC ladder below traces that structure from the front-runner down to the tail.
Which venue prices each conference cheapest?
Venue choice tracks conference this season. The Big Ten's leaders all price cheapest on Kalshi: Ohio State at 13c, Oregon at 12c and Indiana at 10c. Miami's ACC-leading contract is also cheapest on Kalshi at 8c. Kalshi's promo code FADE offers up to $500 after $25 traded.
The SEC skews the other way. Texas (11c), Georgia (10c), LSU (6c), Alabama (3c) and Oklahoma (2c) all price cheapest on Polymarket, with Ole Miss the lone exception at 3c on Kalshi. Polymarket's code TGSWC pairs a $20 deposit with a $50 trading bonus. The pattern means the cheapest venue for a conference position often follows the league it belongs to.
What the board does and does not say
These figures are national-title fair values and best prices, used as a proxy for conference structure because both markets rest on the same team-strength inputs. They are not standalone conference-title quotes, so the mapping is directional rather than exact.
The read is straightforward: the top of each conference is priced at or above the model, and the only contract trading under fair value is Oklahoma at 2c. Prices and the model can both be wrong, and none of this is financial advice; it is a snapshot of where the numbers and the market disagree as of early September.
