The model's widest national-title fades sit with Miami and LSU. Both contracts trade at roughly an 18% premium to the model's fair value: Miami at 8c against a 6.8% fair mark, LSU at 6c against 5.1%. Notre Dame (13c vs 11.3%) and Texas (11c vs 9.6%) round out the fade list, each carrying about a 15% premium at the cheapest venue.
A fade here is narrow and specific. It flags where the best price on the board still sits above the de-vigged consensus, not a verdict on any team's season. Every price and every fair value can be wrong; these are relative gaps, not forecasts of results.
Which CFB title contracts trade over fair value?
The model builds a fair value by de-vigging quoted prices across Kalshi and Polymarket into a single consensus probability, then compares it to the cheapest price available. When the best price still clears fair value by a wide margin, the contract reads as a fade.
On a percentage basis, Miami and LSU lead. Miami's 8c is about 1.2 cents over its 6.8% fair value, and LSU's 6c is roughly 0.9 over 5.1%; scaled to their smaller fair values, both land near an 18% premium. Notre Dame and Texas sit near 15%, wide in absolute terms given their prices near the top of the board.
The pattern is familiar for longer-priced contracts: the vig weighs heavier as fair value shrinks, so mid-board names like Miami and LSU show the largest proportional gaps even when the raw cent spread looks small.
How wide are the premiums right now?
The two charts frame the same fades from both sides: the cheapest price on the board, then the model's fair value for the same teams. The distance between them is the premium the market is charging.
Ohio State is the reference point. Its 12c price against an 11.1% fair value is the tightest gap among favorites, an 8% premium, which is roughly what an efficient title market should leave after the vig. Miami and LSU sit more than twice that wide.
Where the model does not fade
Not every favorite reads rich. Alabama trades at 2c against a 2.5% fair value, a price sitting under the model rather than over it. Oklahoma at 2c versus a 2.1% mark is close to flat. Those contracts are the opposite of a fade: the market is not charging the usual premium.
The takeaway is that the fades cluster in the middle of the board. Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oregon, Texas, Georgia and Indiana all price a cent or so over fair, while the deepest longshots on the list carry little or no premium at the cheapest venue.
Which venue prints the cheapest exit?
Venue matters because the fade is measured against the single best price, and that price moves between books. Miami, Texas and LSU price cheapest on Polymarket; Ohio State, Oregon, Georgia and Indiana price cheapest on Kalshi. Notre Dame's 13c best sits on Polymarket.
For traders comparing the two, the split is worth checking contract by contract rather than assuming one venue always leads. New accounts can weigh the standing promos: Polymarket's TGSWC (deposit $20, get a $50 trading bonus) and Kalshi's FADE (trade $25, get up to $500).
None of this is financial advice. The model's fair value is an estimate, the prices are live and can shift, and a premium today can compress or widen by the next quote.
