Nevada vs North Dakota State
Nevada visit North Dakota State in Week 7. The model favors North Dakota State by 15.3. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these teams by roughly 12.9 rating points: North Dakota State at 8.6 (43rd) against Nevada at -4.3 (89th). That gap drives a projected North Dakota State margin of 15.3 and an 82 percent win probability. The consensus market sits a notch lighter, pricing the spread at 14.7 with an implied 81 percent, while the ProphetX exchange leans heaviest of all at -620 against Nevada's +570, an implied 86 percent. Model, consensus line and exchange all cluster in the same lane.
The unit ranks explain the lean. North Dakota State's defense ranks 20th against a Nevada offense down at 102, and the Bison have backed it up: 5-1 with shutouts of Fordham and Wyoming and only a 13-7 loss at UNLV. Nevada arrives 2-3 since a 49-14 opener, carrying three single-score losses and a 71st-ranked defense facing the 80th-ranked North Dakota State offense. The 10,000-run simulations split them widely: 9.5 projected wins and 12.6 percent Playoff odds for the Bison, 5.2 wins and 0.1 percent for Nevada.
Every input points the same direction: North Dakota State is the clear number, and the exchange prices it hardest at 86 percent.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Nevada's win price; North Dakota State's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Nevada is favored, below it North Dakota State is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Oct 16.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Nevada vs North Dakota State game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Nevada vs North Dakota State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Nevada and North Dakota State play?
Week 7 of 2026, on Oct 17, 2026 at North Dakota State.
Who is favored?
The model projects North Dakota State by 15.3 (82% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →