Wyoming vs North Dakota State
Wyoming visit North Dakota State in Week 5. The model favors North Dakota State by 24.8. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these teams by 20.5 points, rating North Dakota State at 7.8 (45th) against Wyoming at -12.7 (116th), and turns that into a 92% win probability and a projected 22.9-point margin. The consensus line of -18.5 is more conservative, implying 87%, while the ProphetX exchange sits between at 91% (North Dakota State -980, Wyoming +840 at 11%). The model's projected margin clearing the market spread by more than four points is the central disagreement to trade around.
The unit ranks explain the gap. North Dakota State grades 54th on offense and 33rd on defense; Wyoming counters with the 126th offense and 80th defense, so the mismatch is widest where the Bison strength meets the Cowboys weakness. Season simulations reinforce the divide: North Dakota State projects to 10.1 wins with a 22.2% Playoff chance, Wyoming to 5.3 wins and 0%.
Results back the ratings. North Dakota State is 4-0, including 38-32 at Air Force and 31-10 at Sacramento State, with two shutout-adjacent home wins. Wyoming is 2-2, splitting close games and losing 35-13 and 24-10 on the road. The total of 45.5 frames a game the numbers expect North Dakota State to control.
The model reads North Dakota State as a clearer favorite than the spread, projecting 22.9 against a market number of 18.5.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Wyoming's win price; North Dakota State's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Wyoming is favored, below it North Dakota State is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Oct 16.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Wyoming vs North Dakota State game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Wyoming vs North Dakota State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Wyoming and North Dakota State play?
Week 5 of 2026, on Oct 3, 2026 at North Dakota State.
Who is favored?
The model projects North Dakota State by 24.8 (93% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →