Vanderbilt vs Georgia
Vanderbilt visit Georgia in Week 5. The model favors Georgia by 30.9. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
Model and market land in near lockstep here. SP+ rates Georgia 30.2 (rank 1) against Vanderbilt 7.5 (rank 48) and projects the Bulldogs by 25.1, with a 94% win probability to Vanderbilt's 6%. The consensus line across two books sits at Georgia -24 with a 51.3 total, implying 93% to 7%. On the ProphetX exchange, Georgia is priced at -2200 (implied 96%) and Vanderbilt at +1600 (implied 6%). There is no meaningful gap between the projection and the price.
The ratings separation is the story. Georgia grades #1 in both offense and defense, while Vanderbilt sits #46 and #45 on those units, a mismatch on every line the model can measure. The series adds little contrast: Georgia leads 1-0, taking the last meeting in 2023 by 37-20, consistent with the projected margin.
Season form reinforces the gap. Georgia is 4-0 with wins of 63-3, 70-20, 45-17 at Arkansas and 41-13 over Oklahoma, and projects to 10.1 wins, 83% to reach the Playoff and 13.7% to win the title against 14.3% market title odds. Vanderbilt is 3-1, having edged NC State 35-31 before losing 15-21 at Auburn, and projects to 6 wins with a 1.7% Playoff chance.
Model and market agree within a point: Georgia near 94% and favored by roughly 25, with the ratings and form leaving little dispute.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Vanderbilt vs Georgia game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Vanderbilt vs Georgia market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Vanderbilt and Georgia play?
Week 5 of 2026, on Oct 3, 2026 at Georgia.
Who is favored?
The model projects Georgia by 30.9 (97% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Georgia lead 8-1 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →