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Matchup preview

UConn vs Miami (OH)

UConn visit Miami (OH) in Week 4. The model favors UConn by 2.5. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
56%
44%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

The read
Model analysis · September 23 · refreshed weekly

SP+ actually favors the road team on raw rating, grading UConn at -5.2 (rank 86) against Miami (OH) at -6 (rank 92), yet home field tips the projection to Miami (OH) by 1.6 points and a 54% win probability. The market pushes harder in the same direction: Miami (OH) -3.5 with a 51.5 total implies 58% for the home side, a gap over the model's 46% for UConn. The disagreement is one of degree, not side.

The unit ranks explain the tension. UConn pairs a stronger offense (#87) with a weaker defense (#94), while Miami (OH) leans on the #77 defense to offset a #106 offense. Results this season track those profiles: UConn scored 56 and 48 in wins over Lafayette and at Southern Miss but was handled 14-38 by Maryland. Miami (OH) beat Holy Cross 45-7 yet lost 14-59 at Pittsburgh and 31-35 at Cincinnati.

Season projections sit close, 6.8 wins for Miami (OH) against 6.5 for UConn, with neither a factor beyond the game itself: 0.5% and 0.1% Playoff odds and 0% title equity on both sides. The edge, such as it is, rests on whether the market's extra point of home confidence is warranted over the model's tighter 1.6-point read.

The model calls it a near coin flip with Miami (OH) by 1.6, while the market shades a full point further toward the home side.

Matchup odds
Consensus line · 2 books
Spread
M-OH -2.5
Total (O/U)
52.3
Favorite
M-OH
Moneyline win probability (implied from the spread)

Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#67SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#92
#82FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#89
1477EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1400
-Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.0.7%
UConnMiami (OH)solid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
More Week 4 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the UConn vs Miami (OH) game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the UConn vs Miami (OH) market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do UConn and Miami (OH) play?

Week 4 of 2026, on Sep 26, 2026 at Miami (OH).

Who is favored?

The model projects UConn by 2.5 (56% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

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