UAB vs South Florida
UAB visit South Florida in Week 9. The model favors South Florida by 15. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these American teams by 12.6 points of rating, with South Florida 63rd at 2.2 and UAB 110th at minus 10.4, and projects a South Florida win by 15 at an 82 percent clip. The market is more cautious: the consensus line sits at South Florida minus 7.7 with a 42.5 total, implying 68 percent, while the ProphetX exchange prices South Florida at minus 285, or 74 percent. That leaves the model roughly ten to fourteen points of win probability ahead of where the price trades.
The unit ranks explain the gap. South Florida grades 54th on defense and 72nd on offense; UAB counters at 109th on offense and 103rd on defense, giving the hosts an edge on both sides. The series favors South Florida 2-1, and the last meeting in 2025 went 48-18 to the home side.
Results reinforce the ratings order. South Florida is 5-2, including a 28-24 win at Army and a 29-2 shutout-adjacent win over Kent State, with losses to Temple and UTSA by a combined 11. UAB is 4-3 with wins over Navy and East Carolina but double-digit losses at Illinois and Memphis. Season sims project 8 wins for South Florida against 6.1 for UAB.
The model's 82 percent sits well above the market's 68 and the exchange's 74, flagging South Florida value against a lower-rated UAB.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as UAB's win price; South Florida's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line UAB is favored, below it South Florida is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the UAB vs South Florida game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the UAB vs South Florida market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do UAB and South Florida play?
Week 9 of 2026, on Oct 31, 2026 at South Florida.
Who is favored?
The model projects South Florida by 15 (82% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
South Florida lead 2-1 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →