UAB vs Illinois
UAB visit Illinois in Week 1. The model favors Illinois by 30.5. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these teams by nearly 28 rating points, pricing Illinois at 10.4 (28th) against UAB at -17.5 (124th) and projecting a 30.3-point Illinois margin. The consensus market sets Illinois -27.5 with a 54.5 total, so the model reads the favorite roughly three points stronger than the two-book line. Win-probability estimates converge: the model gives Illinois 97%, the market-implied figure is 95%, and ProphetX exchange offers price Illinois at -2800 (97%) against UAB +2100 (5%).
The unit splits reinforce the gap. Illinois grades 26th on offense and 41st on defense, while UAB sits 105th on offense and 130th on defense, the weaker side on both units. That two-sided mismatch is the mechanism behind the projected margin, and it leaves little disagreement between model and market beyond the three-point spread edge toward Illinois.
Season context frames the stakes. Illinois projects to 6.9 wins with a 7.2% Playoff chance and 0.3% title odds (market 0.7%) across a 10,000-run simulation, against UAB at 4.4 wins, 0.1% to reach the Playoff and 0% to win it. Every input points one direction, leaving the size of the margin against the 27.5 number as the only live question.
Model and market align on Illinois near 97%; the lone edge is roughly three points favoring the favorite over the 27.5 line.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as UAB's win price; Illinois's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line UAB is favored, below it Illinois is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the UAB vs Illinois game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the UAB vs Illinois market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do UAB and Illinois play?
Week 1 of 2026, on Sep 4, 2026 at Illinois.
Who is favored?
The model projects Illinois by 30.5 (97% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →