Tulane vs Duke
Tulane visit Duke in Week 1. The model favors Duke by 15. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these teams by nearly ten points: Duke at 5.6 (45th) against Tulane at -4.3 (87th), and the model turns that into a 12.3-point projected Duke margin with a 77% win probability. The consensus line is more cautious at Duke -7.5, implying 68%, while the ProphetX exchange sits between the two at -290, or 74% for Duke. The model is the most bullish read on the home side, and the gap between its 12.3-point projection and the 7.5-point spread is the central disagreement to price.
The ratings edge traces to Duke's offense, ranked 20th against Tulane's 91st. Defensively there is little to choose between them: Duke 81st, Tulane 82nd, which helps explain a total of 51.3. Series history cuts the other way, with Duke leading only 2-1 and Tulane taking the last meeting 34-27 in 2025. The season outlooks are identical at 6.4 projected wins, though Duke grades slightly ahead on Playoff odds, 4.5% to 2.3%, with title equity near zero for both.
Model, market and exchange all favor Duke, but the 12.3-point projection runs well ahead of the 7.5-point line.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Tulane's win price; Duke's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Tulane is favored, below it Duke is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Tulane vs Duke game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Tulane vs Duke market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Tulane and Duke play?
Week 1 of 2026, on Sep 5, 2026 at Duke.
Who is favored?
The model projects Duke by 15 (82% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Duke lead 2-1 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →