Tulane vs Charlotte
Tulane visit Charlotte in Week 9. The model favors Tulane by 14.8. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these American sides by 17.2 points, rating Tulane at -8.2 (102nd) against Charlotte at -25.4 (137th). That gap drives an 82% model win probability and a projected 14.8-point Tulane margin. The consensus line of Charlotte +10 is more cautious, implying 73% for Tulane, while the ProphetX exchange sits between at -340 (77%). Every source points the same direction, and the disagreement is only about magnitude, with the model pricing nearly five points more separation than the two-book market.
The unit ranks reinforce the lean. Tulane's offense (110) and defense (83) both outrank Charlotte's offense (128) and defense (138), and Charlotte's defense is the weakest number on the board. Results back it up: Tulane is 3-4 with wins over South Alabama, Southern Miss and Memphis, while Charlotte is 1-6, its lone win 38-31 at Temple and its losses including 8-59 to Memphis and 10-50 at North Texas.
Series history adds little resistance: Tulane leads 2-0 and shut out Charlotte 27-0 in 2025. Season simulations project 5.4 wins for Tulane against 2.1 for Charlotte, with neither carrying any Playoff or title equity.
Every signal favors Tulane; the only live question is whether the market's 10 points or the model's 14.8 has the margin right.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Tulane's win price; Charlotte's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Tulane is favored, below it Charlotte is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Tulane vs Charlotte game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Tulane vs Charlotte market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Tulane and Charlotte play?
Week 9 of 2026, on Oct 30, 2026 at Charlotte.
Who is favored?
The model projects Tulane by 14.8 (82% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Tulane lead 2-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →