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Matchup preview

Auburn vs Georgia

Auburn visit Georgia in Week 7. The model favors Georgia by 19. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
12%
88%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

Matchup odds
Consensus line · 1 book
Spread
UGA -16.5
Total (O/U)
54.5
Favorite
UGA
Moneyline win probability (implied from the spread)

Real consensus line across 1 sportsbook. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#31SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#2
#24FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#7
1670EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.2057
0.8%Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.11.6%
AuburnGeorgiasolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
Georgia lead 12-1
Georgia have won the last 8
20172025
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2025
20-10
Georgia
at Auburn
2024
31-13
Georgia
at Georgia
2023
27-20
Georgia
at Auburn
2022
42-10
Georgia
at Georgia
2021
34-10
Georgia
at Auburn
2020
27-6
Georgia
at Georgia
2019
21-14
Georgia
at Auburn
2018
27-10
Georgia
at Georgia
2017
40-17
Auburn
at Auburn
2017
28-7
Georgia
neutral site
2016
13-7
Georgia
at Georgia
2015
20-13
Georgia
at Auburn
2014
34-7
Georgia
at Georgia
More Week 7 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the Auburn vs Georgia game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Auburn vs Georgia market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do Auburn and Georgia play?

Week 7 of 2026, on Oct 17, 2026 at Georgia.

Who is favored?

The model projects Georgia by 19 (88% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

Georgia lead 12-1 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

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