Auburn vs Georgia
Auburn visit Georgia in Week 7. The model favors Georgia by 23. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
Model and market agree on the shape, not the size. SP+ rates Georgia 28.3 (rank 2) against Auburn's 11 (rank 32) and projects Georgia by 19.7, giving the home side an 88% win probability. The consensus line of Georgia -20.7 implies 90%, and the ProphetX exchange prices Georgia at -1100, or 92%. The one wrinkle: the market spread sits a full point above the model's 19.7-point projection, the only daylight between the two reads.
The unit ranks explain the gap. Georgia grades #4 on offense and #3 on defense; Auburn checks in #16 on defense but only #62 on offense, the mismatch that drags the projection toward three scores. The series reinforces it at 1-12, with Georgia taking the 2025 meeting 20-10.
Form tracks the ratings. Georgia is unbeaten, including 20-17 at Alabama and 41-13 over Oklahoma. Auburn is 3-2, with a 14-24 loss at Tennessee and a 39-44 defeat to Florida, one-score margins that line up with a team projected for 6.3 wins against Georgia's 10.6.
SP+ and the market converge on a Georgia blowout, and the only soft spot is a line sitting one point under the projected margin.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Auburn's win price; Georgia's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Auburn is favored, below it Georgia is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Auburn vs Georgia game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Auburn vs Georgia market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Auburn and Georgia play?
Week 7 of 2026, on Oct 17, 2026 at Georgia.
Who is favored?
The model projects Georgia by 23 (92% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Georgia lead 12-1 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →