Toledo vs Michigan State
Toledo visit Michigan State in Week 1. The model favors Michigan State by 10.1. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
The model and the market agree on direction and split on degree. SP+ separates these teams by 11.3 rating points, Michigan State at 2.2 (rank 62) against Toledo at -9.1 (rank 101), and projects the Spartans by 13.7. The consensus line across two books sits at Michigan State -9.5 with a total of 47, roughly four points shy of the model number. Win-probability tells the same story: the model prices Michigan State at 80 percent, the ProphetX exchange at 78 percent, and the market at 72 percent, leaving the model most confident in the favorite.
Unit ranks explain the edge. Michigan State grades ahead on both sides, offense #58 to Toledo's #114 and defense #61 to #75, so the projected margin is driven more by the gap in Toledo's attack than by any Spartan dominance. Neither profile is strong in absolute terms, and the 47-point total reflects that.
Season simulations complicate the single-game read: across 10,000 runs Toledo projects to seven wins against Michigan State's five, with Playoff odds of 1.4 percent and 1 percent and no title path for either. The favorite here is the weaker team over a full year, which is why the market's 72 percent trails the model's 80.
Model backs Michigan State harder than the market, 13.7 projected to a 9.5 line, even as Toledo grades better over a full season.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Toledo's win price; Michigan State's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Toledo is favored, below it Michigan State is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Toledo vs Michigan State game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Toledo vs Michigan State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Toledo and Michigan State play?
Week 1 of 2026, on Sep 5, 2026 at Michigan State.
Who is favored?
The model projects Michigan State by 10.1 (73% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →