Temple vs East Carolina
Temple visit East Carolina in Week 9. The model favors East Carolina by 6.1. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
The model and the consensus market land in near-perfect agreement here. SP+ projects East Carolina by 6.1 points and pegs its win probability at 64 percent, while the two-book line sits at East Carolina -6 with an identical market-implied 64 percent. The ProphetX exchange is slightly more aggressive on the home side, offering East Carolina at -210 (68 percent implied) and Temple at +205 (33 percent), a modest premium over both the model and the consensus number.
The ratings gap is narrow for a one-score spread: East Carolina sits at -4 (rank 91) against Temple at -7.7 (rank 99), a 3.7-point separation. The unit splits explain the edge. East Carolina leans on defense (#70) despite a weak offense (#105), while Temple pairs a middling offense (#79) with a #117 defense, the softest number on the board. The series is tight at 6-5 in Temple's favor, but the 2025 meeting was a 45-14 East Carolina rout.
Season form tracks the projections: East Carolina is simulated at 5.7 wins to Temple's 4.2, with neither team carrying any Playoff or title equity. East Carolina is 3-4 with wins over Old Dominion, North Carolina Central and Rice; Temple is 2-5, its wins coming against Rhode Island and 17-13 at South Florida, with recent losses to UConn and Charlotte.
Model and market agree on East Carolina by six; the exchange prices the home side a touch higher at -210.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Temple's win price; East Carolina's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Temple is favored, below it East Carolina is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Temple vs East Carolina game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Temple vs East Carolina market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Temple and East Carolina play?
Week 9 of 2026, on Oct 31, 2026 at East Carolina.
Who is favored?
The model projects East Carolina by 6.1 (64% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Temple lead 6-5 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →