San Diego State vs Toledo
San Diego State visit Toledo in Week 4. The model favors San Diego State by 0.5. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
The model and the market sit on opposite sides of a coin-flip. SP+ rates San Diego State at -2.5 (rank 78) against Toledo at -5.4 (rank 87), and that three-point ratings edge translates to a projected margin of San Diego State by 0.5 and a 51% Aztec win probability. The consensus line reads the other way: Toledo -3 on a 52.3 total, implying 57% for the Rockets, and the ProphetX exchange echoes it at Toledo -140 (58%) with San Diego State available at +134 (43%). That is roughly a full touchdown of disagreement between a model leaning San Diego State and a market pricing Toledo as the clear side.
Unit ranks explain the noise: neither offense is trusted (San Diego State #98, Toledo #101) and both defenses grade mid-pack (#67 and #76), so a 52.3 total leans on shootout math. Results back that read for Toledo, which survived Temple 49-48 and buried Central Connecticut 63-10 after a 20-30 loss at Michigan State. San Diego State opened 53-20 over Portland State but scored 10 at UCLA and 13 versus James Madison. Season projections favor Toledo at 7.9 wins to 5.1, and the only prior meeting went San Diego State 17-14 in 2022.
A model coin-flip leaning San Diego State collides with a market pricing Toledo near -3, and recent scoring backs the Rockets.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as San Diego State's win price; Toledo's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line San Diego State is favored, below it Toledo is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the San Diego State vs Toledo game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the San Diego State vs Toledo market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do San Diego State and Toledo play?
Week 4 of 2026, on Sep 26, 2026 at Toledo.
Who is favored?
The model projects San Diego State by 0.5 (51% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
San Diego State lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →