Matchup preview
San Diego State vs Toledo
San Diego State visit Toledo in Week 4. The model favors Toledo by 1.7. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
Win probability
Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
#43SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#48
#67FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#52
1528EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1646
-Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.-
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
San Diego State lead 1-0
20222022
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
FAQ
Frequently asked questions
When do San Diego State and Toledo play?
Week 4 of 2026, on Sep 26, 2026 at Toledo.
Who is favored?
The model projects Toledo by 1.7 (54% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
San Diego State lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.