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Matchup preview

Rutgers vs Boston College

Rutgers visit Boston College in Week 2. The model favors Rutgers by 0.1. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
50%
50%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

The read
Model analysis · September 9 · refreshed weekly

The model and the market sit on opposite sides here. SP+ rates Rutgers at -3.6 (rank 78) against Boston College at -7.4 (rank 97), a 3.8-point edge that projects the visitor to win by 1.4 and lands the win probability at 53% to 47%. The consensus line flips that read, posting Boston College -3 with a 54.3 total and implying 57% for the home side. The ProphetX exchange leans harder still, offering Rutgers +140 (42%) against Boston College -150 (60%). The gap between a model that narrowly favors Rutgers and a market pricing Boston College as the clear side is the central disagreement.

Unit ratings tilt toward Rutgers on offense, ranked #54 to Boston College's #96, though the Rutgers defense (#105) grades below the Boston College defense (#98). Full-season simulations keep both projects modest: Rutgers at 3.9 wins, Boston College at 3.4, with neither above 0.1% to reach the Playoff. The series is level at 1-1, and the last meeting in 2022 went to Rutgers 22-21.

Both teams enter off Week 1 losses. Rutgers fell at home to Massachusetts 21-37, while Boston College lost at Cincinnati 15-34. The results give the market's home lean little support from the scoreboard, leaving the model's near coin-flip and the exchange's 60% Boston College price as the widest split on the board.

Model shades Rutgers by 1.4 while the market and exchange price Boston College near 60%: the sharpest disagreement is on the favorite itself.

Matchup odds
Consensus line · 3 books
Spread
BC -3
Total (O/U)
53.5
Favorite
BC
Moneyline win probability (implied from the spread)

Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.

Matchup odds price history
The market to win this game · daily prices, colored by the favorite
Rutgers1%-49 ptsvsBoston College99%+49 pts
0%25%50%75%100%Rutgers favoredBoston College favoredAug 30Sep 2Sep 5Sep 8Sep 11Sep 12

Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Rutgers's win price; Boston College's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Rutgers is favored, below it Boston College is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#77SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#85
#63FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#88
1469EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1359
-Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.-
RutgersBoston Collegesolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
Series even 1-1
20192022
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2022
22-21
Rutgers
at Boston College
2019
30-16
Boston College
at Rutgers
More Week 2 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the Rutgers vs Boston College game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Rutgers vs Boston College market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do Rutgers and Boston College play?

Week 2 of 2026, on Sep 11, 2026 at Boston College.

Who is favored?

The model projects Rutgers by 0.1 (50% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

Series even 1-1 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

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