Memphis vs Boise State
Memphis visit Boise State in Week 2. The model favors Boise State by 5.6. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ makes Boise State a 63% favorite with a projected margin of 5.5, backed by a ratings edge of 5.2 (rank 50) to Memphis at 2.1 (rank 65). The market pushes harder: the consensus line of Boise State -9 implies 71%, and the ProphetX exchange offers Boise State -310 (76%) against Memphis +290 (26%). That is a wide gap between a model that sees a one-score home game and a market pricing near a double-digit result, with the total set at 54.8.
The unit ranks explain the friction. Memphis brings the better offense (#41 to #47) but the weaker defense (#89 to Boise State's #58), a profile that can keep pace with the 54.8 total without controlling it. Series history favors the visitor: Boise State is 0-1 against Memphis, losing the last meeting 35-32 in 2023. Form is split so far: Memphis is 2-0 (27-21 at UNLV, 42-24 over Arkansas State) while Boise State is 0-1 after falling 27-34 at Oregon.
The season simulations lean the other way, projecting Memphis at 8.4 wins and 8.5% Playoff odds versus Boise State's 6.9 wins and 6.3%. The read: a model calling a close game while the market prices Boise State as a firm favorite, leaving Memphis +290 as the point of disagreement.
Model sees a one-score Boise State edge; the market prices near double digits, making Memphis +290 the clearest gap.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Memphis's win price; Boise State's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Memphis is favored, below it Boise State is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Memphis vs Boise State game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Memphis vs Boise State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Memphis and Boise State play?
Week 2 of 2026, on Sep 12, 2026 at Boise State.
Who is favored?
The model projects Boise State by 5.6 (63% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Memphis lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →