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Matchup preview

Ohio vs Sacramento State

Ohio visit Sacramento State in Week 7. The model favors Ohio by 15.6. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
83%
17%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

Matchup odds
Consensus line · 2 books
Spread
OHIO -15.5
Total (O/U)
47.5
Favorite
OHIO
Moneyline win probability (implied from the spread)
Ohio
83%

Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.

Matchup odds price history
The market to win this game · daily prices, colored by the favorite
Ohio85%-3 ptsvsSacramento State15%+3 pts
0%25%50%75%100%Ohio favoredSacramento State favoredOct 8Oct 12Oct 14Oct 16

Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Ohio's win price; Sacramento State's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Ohio is favored, below it Sacramento State is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Oct 16.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#101SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#135
#74FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.-
1584EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.-
-Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.-
OhioSacramento Statesolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
More Week 7 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the Ohio vs Sacramento State game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Ohio vs Sacramento State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do Ohio and Sacramento State play?

Week 7 of 2026, on Oct 18, 2026 at Sacramento State.

Who is favored?

The model projects Ohio by 15.6 (83% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

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