Ohio vs Nebraska
Ohio visit Nebraska in Week 1. The model favors Nebraska by 29.6. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
Rare alignment here: SP+ projects Nebraska by 23.5, the consensus line across two books sits at Nebraska -23.7, and both the model and the market-implied number land on 92% for the home side. The ratings gap drives it. Nebraska carries a 9.3 SP+ rating (33rd) against Ohio at -11.8 (109th), a spread of roughly 21 points in raw rating that the projected margin tracks closely. The total is set at 46.3.
The unit ranks reinforce the direction rather than complicate it. Nebraska grades out ahead on both sides, offense 42nd to Ohio's 132nd and defense 31st to 63rd, so there is no phase where the model sees Ohio holding an edge. The ProphetX exchange pushes slightly harder than the consensus, pricing Nebraska at -2200 (implied 96%) and Ohio at +1550 (implied 6%), a small premium over the 8% the model and books assign the visitor.
Season simulations flatten the gap that this single matchup exaggerates. Across 10,000 runs Ohio projects to 6.6 wins against Nebraska's 6.3, and Ohio's 0.6% Playoff odds edge Nebraska's read as modest for both. The contract is a heavy chalk with no disagreement to exploit on the moneyline; any value sits in the margin and total, where the numbers are effectively priced.
Model and market are locked in step at 92% Nebraska, with only a fifth of a point separating the two margins.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Ohio's win price; Nebraska's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Ohio is favored, below it Nebraska is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Ohio vs Nebraska game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Ohio vs Nebraska market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Ohio and Nebraska play?
Week 1 of 2026, on Sep 5, 2026 at Nebraska.
Who is favored?
The model projects Nebraska by 29.6 (96% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →