Northern Illinois vs Iowa
Northern Illinois visit Iowa in Week 1. The model favors Iowa by 39.4. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ frames this as a mismatch across the board. Iowa rates 14.6 (22nd) against Northern Illinois at -17.2 (123rd), a gap that produces a projected Iowa margin of 34.2 points and a 98% model win probability. The unit ranks reinforce it: Iowa's offense sits 35th and its defense 16th, while Northern Illinois checks in 125th on offense and 106th on defense, offering no side of the ball to lean on.
The market lands slightly softer than the model. Consensus across two books sets Iowa -31.2 with a 44.5 total, implying a 97% Iowa win probability, three points shy of the model's projected margin. The ProphetX exchange is more extreme still, pricing Iowa at -25000 (implied 100%) and Northern Illinois at +4900 (implied 2%), matching the model's tail rather than the market's 3%. Series history is thin but one-directional: Iowa leads 1-0, winning the last meeting 33-7 in 2018.
Season context separates the programs. Iowa projects to 7.6 wins with an 18% Playoff chance over 10,000 runs, though the market prices its title odds at just 0.7% against the model's 1%. Northern Illinois projects to 4.4 wins with 0% Playoff and title equity.
Every input points one way: model, market, and exchange all price Iowa as a near-lock, with only the margin in question.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Northern Illinois's win price; Iowa's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Northern Illinois is favored, below it Iowa is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Northern Illinois vs Iowa game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Northern Illinois vs Iowa market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Northern Illinois and Iowa play?
Week 1 of 2026, on Sep 5, 2026 at Iowa.
Who is favored?
The model projects Iowa by 39.4 (99% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Iowa lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →