Northern Illinois vs Georgia State
Northern Illinois visit Georgia State in Week 4. The model favors Georgia State by 21.1. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these teams by a tenth of a point, rating Northern Illinois -19.7 (130th) and Georgia State -19.6 (128th). That translates to a 56% Georgia State win probability and a projected margin of 2.5 points. The market disagrees sharply: the consensus line of -10.5 implies 74%, and the ProphetX exchange pushes further to 78% on the -365 offer. That is a wide divergence between a model reading near-parity and a market pricing a comfortable favorite.
The unit ranks favor Georgia State only modestly, with its offense 109th against Northern Illinois at 130th, while its defense sits 137th behind the Huskies' 117th. Results add context: Georgia State has scored 59 and 31 in wins over North Carolina A&T and Kennesaw State before a 30-44 loss at UCF. Northern Illinois is 0-3, falling 0-40 at Iowa, 24-28 to Illinois State, and 17-42 at Arizona.
Season simulations project 5.2 wins for Georgia State and 3.1 for Northern Illinois, neither with any Playoff or title path. With a total of 55.5 posted, the model's 2.5-point projection leaves the +335 contract on Northern Illinois priced at 23% against a 44% model probability.
SP+ calls this a coin flip while the market prices Georgia State as a double-digit favorite: the gap is the story.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Northern Illinois's win price; Georgia State's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Northern Illinois is favored, below it Georgia State is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Oct 16.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Northern Illinois vs Georgia State game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Northern Illinois vs Georgia State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Northern Illinois and Georgia State play?
Week 4 of 2026, on Sep 26, 2026 at Georgia State.
Who is favored?
The model projects Georgia State by 21.1 (90% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →