Matchup preview
New Mexico State vs Florida State
New Mexico State visit Florida State in Week 1. The model favors Florida State by 25.1. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
Win probability
Matchup odds
Consensus line · 2 books
Spread
FSU -30.5
Total (O/U)
26.3
Favorite
FSU
Moneyline win probability (implied from the spread)
3%
97%
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Matchup odds price history
Each side's market to win this game · daily prices
4%-20 pts
98%+14 pts
Real daily prices from each side's market to win this game. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). Both panels share the same scale. As of Aug 8.
Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
#123SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#41
#126FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#33
1172EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1556
-Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.0.8%
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
FAQ
Frequently asked questions
When do New Mexico State and Florida State play?
Week 1 of 2026, on Aug 29, 2026 at Florida State.
Who is favored?
The model projects Florida State by 25.1 (94% win probability), from SP+ ratings.