New Mexico vs San José State
New Mexico visit San José State in Week 9. The model favors New Mexico by 18.2. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ rates New Mexico at 9.3 (37th) against San Jose State at -11.3 (114th), a 20.6-point ratings gap that drives a projected 18.2-point New Mexico margin. The model puts New Mexico at 86 percent, slightly ahead of the market's 82 percent off a San Jose State +14.8 line and implied 18 percent. The model therefore reads New Mexico a few points stronger than the two-book consensus, with the 42.3 total the only room for disagreement on pace.
The unit splits explain the spread: New Mexico pairs the 20th defense with a 68th offense, while San Jose State sits 126th on offense and 75th on defense. That defensive edge is the lever. Series history cuts the other way, San Jose State leading 5-1 and taking the 2025 meeting 35-28, the lone thread arguing against the ratings.
Form backs the favorite. New Mexico is 6-1, its only loss 6-14 at Oklahoma, with wins by 54 over UTEP and 35 over Central Michigan, and the simulation projects 9.5 wins and 23.2 percent Playoff odds. San Jose State is 4-4 with four losses including 10-26 to Fresno State and 13-28 at Nevada, projecting 6 wins and 0 percent to reach the Playoff.
The model leans harder on New Mexico than the +14.8 line, with the 20th-ranked defense and 6-1 form outweighing a 1-5 series mark.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the New Mexico vs San José State game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the New Mexico vs San José State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do New Mexico and San José State play?
Week 9 of 2026, on Oct 31, 2026 at San José State.
Who is favored?
The model projects New Mexico by 18.2 (86% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
San José State lead 5-1 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →