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Matchup preview

NC State vs Virginia

NC State visit Virginia in Week 1. The model favors Virginia by 7.9. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
32%
68%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

The read
Model analysis · August 26 · refreshed weekly

SP+ separates these teams by 2.4 points, rating Virginia 8.1 (37th) against NC State 5.7 (43rd), and turns that edge into a 61% home win probability with a projected margin of Virginia by 4.8. The market leans a shade harder: Virginia -5.7 and a 64% implied number, so the consensus line sits marginally past the model's fair value rather than under it. The unit splits explain the price. Virginia's defense ranks 24th to NC State's 59th, while NC State owns the offensive edge at 32nd against the Cavaliers' 62nd, framing a matchup of the better attack against the better stop unit.

Series history cuts the other way. NC State holds a 4-0 record against Virginia, most recently a 35-31 win in 2025, a result the ratings-based projection does not carry forward. Season simulations keep the two close: Virginia projects to 7.3 wins with a 9.1% Playoff chance, NC State to 7 wins and 6.3%, with title odds of 0.2% and 0.1% respectively. The total is set at 53.5.

Model and market both favor Virginia by roughly a field goal, but a 4-0 NC State series ledger complicates the number.

Matchup odds
Consensus line · 3 books
Spread
UVA -4
Total (O/U)
50.5
Favorite
UVA
Moneyline win probability (implied from the spread)

Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#57SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#36
#46FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#36
1605EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1637
-Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.0.8%
NC StateVirginiasolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
NC State lead 4-0
NC State have won the last 4
20182025
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2025
35-31
NC State
at NC State
2023
24-21
NC State
at Virginia
2020
38-21
NC State
at Virginia
2018
35-21
NC State
at NC State
More Week 1 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the NC State vs Virginia game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the NC State vs Virginia market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do NC State and Virginia play?

Week 1 of 2026, on Aug 29, 2026 at Virginia.

Who is favored?

The model projects Virginia by 7.9 (68% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

NC State lead 4-0 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

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