Missouri State vs Florida International
Missouri State visit Florida International in Week 10. The model favors Florida International by 7.5. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these C-USA teams by nine points, rating Florida International at -7.9 (rank 100) against Missouri State's -16.9 (rank 128). That gap drives a projected 11.4-point FIU margin and a 76% win probability. The market is far more cautious: the consensus line sits at FIU -4.7 with a 61% implied edge, and the ProphetX exchange prices the host at -188, or 65%, with Missouri State at +180 (36%). The model sees a clearer favorite than traders do.
The ratings point to defense as the swing. FIU's unit ranks 61st, comfortably the strongest side on the field, while both offenses lag (FIU 118th, Missouri State 114th) and the Missouri State defense sits 128th. The total is priced at 49.8. Series history cuts the other way: Missouri State took the only prior meeting 28-21 in 2025.
Form is mixed. FIU projects for 5.4 wins against Missouri State's 4.2, but its recent ledger includes a 10-49 loss at Liberty and a 23-26 home defeat to Middle Tennessee. Missouri State closed with a 24-3 win over Sam Houston after a 38-61 loss at Delaware. Neither simulation produces any Playoff or title equity.
The model likes Florida International well beyond the market's number, but weak offenses and last year's Missouri State upset argue for caution.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Missouri State vs Florida International game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Missouri State vs Florida International market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Missouri State and Florida International play?
Week 10 of 2026, on Nov 7, 2026 at Florida International.
Who is favored?
The model projects Florida International by 7.5 (68% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Missouri State lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →