Miami (OH) vs Central Michigan
Miami (OH) visit Central Michigan in Week 8. The model favors Miami (OH) by 10.1. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
The model and the market disagree sharply on this one. SP+ rates Miami (OH) at -4 (rank 94) against Central Michigan at -16.4 (rank 125), a 12.4-point ratings gap that drives a projected 10-point Miami margin and a 73% win probability. The consensus of two books prices Central Michigan at +2.5 with a 40 total, implying just 56% for Miami and 44% for Central Michigan. That leaves a 17-point probability spread between the model's read and the market's, with the contract priced far closer than the ratings suggest.
The unit ranks favor Miami (OH) across the board: offense #97 to #133, defense #79 to #107. The series backs the model as well, Central Michigan 1-5 against Miami (OH), including a 46-7 loss in the 2024 meeting. Results add nuance. Miami sits uneven at 4-3 with a 14-59 loss at Pittsburgh but close wins over UConn and Massachusetts. Central Michigan is 3-4 and already absorbed a 3-52 loss at Miami this season, though wins over Wyoming and Akron show a floor.
Projections split the season too: Miami (OH) at 7 wins, Central Michigan at 5.4, neither with a title path.
The model sees Miami (OH) by 10 at 73%, but the market shaves it to +2.5 and 56%, leaving a wide probability gap.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Miami (OH)'s win price; Central Michigan's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Miami (OH) is favored, below it Central Michigan is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Miami (OH) vs Central Michigan game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Miami (OH) vs Central Michigan market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Miami (OH) and Central Michigan play?
Week 8 of 2026, on Oct 24, 2026 at Central Michigan.
Who is favored?
The model projects Miami (OH) by 10.1 (73% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Miami (OH) lead 5-1 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →