Memphis vs UNLV
Memphis visit UNLV in Week 1. The model favors Memphis by 4.6. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these teams by 3.3 points of rating, UNLV at 3.6 (rank 55) against Memphis at 0.3 (rank 67), and turns that into a 5.7-point projected margin with UNLV at 64%. The market is more cautious: the consensus line across two books sets UNLV -4.2 with a 56.5 total, implying 60% for the home side. The ProphetX exchange sits closest to the model, offering UNLV -184 (65%) against Memphis +168 (37%). The direction is unanimous; the disagreement is roughly a point and a half of spread and four points of win probability.
The unit ranks explain the edge. UNLV brings the better offense at #29 to Memphis at #49, while both defenses grade poorly, UNLV #84 and Memphis #92, which fits the 56.5 total. Memphis at #92 is the weakest single unit on the field, and that gap is where UNLV's projected margin comes from rather than any defensive stop.
Season simulations reinforce the tilt: across 10,000 runs UNLV projects to 8.3 wins and a 13.9% Playoff rate, Memphis to 7.4 wins at 6.9%, and neither is a title factor at 0.1% and 0%. The value question is narrow, since a trader who trusts SP+ reads the exchange price of 65% as fair while the consensus 60% looks light on the favorite.
SP+, the consensus line, and the ProphetX exchange all lean UNLV, with only the margin of conviction in dispute.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Memphis's win price; UNLV's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Memphis is favored, below it UNLV is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Memphis vs UNLV game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Memphis vs UNLV market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Memphis and UNLV play?
Week 1 of 2026, on Aug 30, 2026 at UNLV.
Who is favored?
The model projects Memphis by 4.6 (61% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →