Louisiana vs Charlotte
Louisiana visit Charlotte in Week 4. The model favors Louisiana by 23.9. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ frames this as a mismatch: Louisiana rates -7.2 (99th) against Charlotte at -24.1 (135th), a gap that yields a projected 14.5-point Louisiana margin and an 81% model win probability. Every Louisiana unit outranks its counterpart, with the offense at #79 and defense at #110 facing a Charlotte offense at #127 and defense at #136. The season simulations reinforce the tiering, projecting 7.5 wins for Louisiana against 2.1 for Charlotte across 10,000 runs.
The market is directionally aligned but more cautious. The consensus line of Charlotte +10 with a 48.5 total implies a 73% Louisiana win probability, four points shy of the model's number, effectively shaving roughly 4.5 points off the projected margin. The ProphetX exchange sits between the two, pricing Louisiana at -350 (78%) and Charlotte at +335 (23%), closer to SP+ than to the consensus books.
Results add nuance. Louisiana has beaten Lamar 38-7 and UAB 21-14 while losing 30-49 at USC, a defeat against a stronger opponent. Charlotte is 0-3, dropping a 41-43 decision to The Citadel, losing 9-41 at Ole Miss, and falling 21-26 at App State. The narrow App State loss is the lone data point suggesting the +10 cushion has support.
The model, the market and the exchange all favor Louisiana, but each prices Charlotte's upset a few points higher than SP+ does.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Louisiana's win price; Charlotte's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Louisiana is favored, below it Charlotte is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Oct 16.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Louisiana vs Charlotte game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Louisiana vs Charlotte market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Louisiana and Charlotte play?
Week 4 of 2026, on Sep 26, 2026 at Charlotte.
Who is favored?
The model projects Louisiana by 23.9 (93% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →