Kansas vs TCU
Kansas visit TCU in Week 9. The model favors TCU by 8.2. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these teams by nearly six points of rating, pegging TCU at 8.6 (41st) against Kansas at 2.8 (60th), and translating that into a 69% TCU win probability with a projected margin of 8.2. The consensus market is more cautious: TCU -6 with a 46.8 total implies 64% for the Horned Frogs, while the ProphetX exchange prices TCU at -215 (68%) and Kansas at +200 (33%). The model therefore reads slightly stronger on TCU than the line, with the exchange splitting the difference.
The unit ranks explain the edge. TCU's defense is the standout at 11th, a clear lever against a Kansas offense ranked 61st, even though the TCU offense (83rd) trails the Kansas defense (57th). That defensive gap is the spine of the projection. Series history reinforces it: Kansas is 1-9 all-time against TCU, and TCU took the 2024 meeting 38-27.
Results complicate the tidy ranking story. Kansas sits 4-3 with a 25-24 win over Baylor; TCU is 3-4, including a 17-6 win at Baylor and losses to BYU and West Virginia. Simulations project 5 wins for Kansas and 5.2 for TCU, with Playoff odds of 0.1% and 1.1%. The matchup reads as a modest home favorite, the model marginally firmer than the price.
The model's 8.2-point lean on TCU sits a touch above the market's -6, and all three prices tilt toward the home side.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Kansas's win price; TCU's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Kansas is favored, below it TCU is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Kansas vs TCU game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Kansas vs TCU market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Kansas and TCU play?
Week 9 of 2026, on Oct 31, 2026 at TCU.
Who is favored?
The model projects TCU by 8.2 (69% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
TCU lead 9-1 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →