Illinois vs Maryland
Illinois visit Maryland in Week 9. The model favors Illinois by 6.5. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these Big Ten sides by 8.9 rating points, Illinois at 6.8 (rank 48) against Maryland at -2.1 (rank 81), and projects Illinois by 6.5. That maps to a 65% model win probability for Illinois, firmly ahead of the market, which prices Maryland at +2.5 and implies just 56% for the visitor. The ProphetX exchange sits between the two at Illinois -123, or 55%. The nine-point edge the model holds over the consensus line is the central disagreement here.
The unit ranks back the lean: Illinois grades out ahead on both sides, offense #36 to #70 and defense #63 to #89. Form sharpens the contrast. Illinois is 4-3 with a win at Michigan State (38-37) and over Oregon (21-10), while Maryland has dropped five straight after a 2-0 start, including 3-54 to UCLA and 16-45 at Ohio State. The series is even at 2-2, but the last meeting in 2025 went to Illinois 24-6.
Season projections frame the gap: Illinois sims to 6.1 wins with a 1.2% Playoff chance, Maryland to 3.8 wins with 0%. The total sits at 54.5.
Model, exchange and unit ranks all lean Illinois, and the 65% projection sits well clear of the market's 56%.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Illinois's win price; Maryland's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Illinois is favored, below it Maryland is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Illinois vs Maryland game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Illinois vs Maryland market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Illinois and Maryland play?
Week 9 of 2026, on Oct 31, 2026 at Maryland.
Who is favored?
The model projects Illinois by 6.5 (65% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Series even 2-2 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →